Statistical Analysis and Forecasting

24 August 2013, Comments: 0

1(3)Bakers, in general, but especially those who cater to customers who pay based on ‘actual’ sales at the cash register rather than called-in orders, need to predict future consumption. That is what this Z-Bake functionality helps bakers do. There are, of course, as many ways of forecasting as there are bakers who wish to do so. Forecasting formulas are usually based on some factors or ratios that take historical statistical sales records and by extrapolation predict future ‘orders’. To complicate matters, weather and other unpredictable conditions influence the result. In the final analysis such predictions become more of an art form rather than science.

User first indicates in each customer’s file whether that customer is a possible ‘predictor’. In other words, certain customers, such as caterers are not good candidates for predicting future orders. This ensures that forecasts are based on customers who are expected to order regularly. User also enters external factors and weather conditions for each day.

The program then reviews relevant historical data and ‘gathers’ what it needs for forecasting. Mathematical calculations are performed. It then proceeds to one ‘forecast’ed order per customer. Once such orders are created (in addition to and separate from REAL orders that have been received and entered, user can print production sheets based on these ‘forecast’ed orders.

Finally, as real (actual) orders are received and entered, the ‘forecast’ed orders are replaced with those actual orders. As we get closer to the day that the user had forecasted, the quality of the estimates gets better. Most of the estimated orders become real. And the estimated production sheet gets very close and similar to the production sheet based on actual orders.

If you have questions and/or wish to discuss forecasting and related matters with an actual user, please contact Twin Peaks Software staff. We will gladly refer you to a customer who uses the enhancement successfully each day.